As many of us have heard, the current House of Representatives has announced that they are looking for articles of Impeachment for our President Trump. But does this mean he will get kicked out of office? Not necessarily. One thing that many people misunderstand about this process is that there are three main steps. One within congress altogether, one within the house, and one within the senate. The first step can be initiated by anyone in congress although is usually brought on by the House Judiciary Committee. This is the investigation (the stage we are at currently with Trump). Next, when there are enough articles of Impeachment, the House will choose to have a vote. If they get majority, the case will get sent to the senate where they will make the final decision. Right here, this is called Impeachment. However, the president will not get kicked out of office until the Senate votes him/her out. For this, though, they will need a 2/3 majority, or a super-majority. In Trump's case Republicans control the Senate so it would be hard to get the 2/3 vote. Also, according to a Monmouth University poll, only "35% of Americans feel that Trump should be impeached and compelled to
leave the presidency while a clear majority (59%) disagree with this course of action." Seems to me like it is not too likely to happen. Sources : https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_082219.pdf/ and https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39945744
In the past, only two presidents have ever been impeached: Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson. Nixon retired before he could be impeached ;). Will Trump be the next? Let me know what you think and comment and subscribe down below!
If you want updates on this, CNN has a website that is continuously adding new information about what is going on. The link is here: https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-impeachment-inquiry-10-03-2019/index.html.
I don't think Trump will get impeached. Even though There is an impeachable offense to go against, like you said for the case to go past the senate there needs to be a majority vote of 2/3 but I don't think it'll happen. They are mainly republicans and your stats for the poll also go against impeaching trump. It will get through the Dominated house of representatives but end there.
ReplyDeleteSource: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/04/trump-impeachment-latest-explained-did-trump-commit-what-happens-next
Now will this bring up problems for next years campaign? I guess we'll have to find out but I doubt any of this will amount to anything.
Interesting article and I agree with you on the fact that Trump will likely not be impeached. Even if the vote was to clear the house, it would still have to get a 2/3 majority in senate and most republicans are refusing to budge on this matter. Unless the investigation is able to find condemning evidence like in watergate or the trap that got Andrew Johnson I doubt anyone will turn their minds. Even if it went to popular vote instead of senate I would doubt he would be removed because the nation is so partisan right now and most people are sticking to party lines no matter what.
ReplyDeleteI like how you clearly described the impeachment process and cleared up some of its myths. I also agree that the likelihood that Trump will be impeached is low, given that Republicans represent majority of the senate and a 2/3 majority is required. I think it's important to note how difficult and long the impeachment process is. The watergate scandal and Bill Clinton's impeachment have showed us that even if the President is impeached, things can still go his or her way. Also, another interesting aspect to consider in Trump's case is how the Democrats will be viewed if he isn't impeached, as this will definitely affect their reputations and possibly boost that of Trumps.
ReplyDeleteI really enjoyed reading your post, as I found the topic very interesting. I liked how you provided historical comparisons and included a link for more information about the subject. I agree that Trump most likely will not be impeached: the vote will never clear the Republican-dominated Senate. Currently, in the 116th Congress, there are 53 Republican Senators and 45 Democrat Senators, but 67 votes are needed. In today’s heavily polarized political climate, politicians will almost always vote along party lines. However, this all depends upon whatever evidence is uncovered in the investigation.
ReplyDeleteSource: https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm
I really liked your article, and agree that while Trump deserves to get impeached, the chances of him making it through the Senate are not high. While his list of impeachable offenses are off the charts and extremely evident, senators are probably more likely to vote with their party than to vote against it, even if he has committed a crime. However, there are also a fair amount of senators who are up for reelection, and they might vote with how their constituents want them to vote and succumb to social pressure rather than vote for Trump. This is a long shot as I'm assuming most of the people that the Republican senators are representing want Trump to stay in office because he is from their party, no matter the charges against him.
ReplyDeleteI really like your article, because it highlights how in this time of politics sharply divided among party lines, it illustrates how hard it is to accomplish significant change because most representatives cannot vote across party lines in most significant issues without fearing for their own reelection. Most senators in Congress for example, vote nearly with a 75-100% rate along Trump's policies (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/) while most Democrats vote against it. The most interesting thing about this whole impeachment is that while there were probably many impeachable offenses before, it was only after the Ukraine investigation that Speaker Nancy Pelosi brought forth the move to bring forth impeachment.
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