Background - Today we talked about how candidates need to reach 3 (preferably 4) of 5 demographics of voters in order to win the presidential election.
One of the most common reasons I see people support Joe Biden is because they believe he can beat Trump. He's popular with black and establishment voters plus he has a lot of experience. In my opinion though, giving him the democratic nomination could lead to an easy win for Trump.
First, we have to consider why Trump won the election in the first place. He wasn't the most qualified by a long shot, he didn't seem to appeal to 4 or even 3 of the Republican demographic voting groups, and he had no previous experience in politics. So why did voters like him? What the establishment perceived as unprofessional and obscene, many Americans saw as honesty. They saw someone who didn't care what anyone else thought, someone who spoke his mind and riled up the Hollywood elites, someone who could be understood by the everyman.
And perhaps even more important, Trump was one of the most entertaining people to ever enter politics. He had his voters howling at his rallies, his jokes about his opponents were memorable and scathing (Ex - Lyin' Ted, Heartless Hillary, Sleepy Joe, Dumbo, etc). Many find politics boring but he made Americans watch presidential debates, he made them care.
Then there's Joe Biden. He's been around a long time, long enough to be on the wrong side of history for the very beginning from the Me Too Movement, have numerous women accuse him of uncomfortable touching, oppose gay rights, and vote against the Hyde amendment (funds for abortion). I watched the democratic debates and every time he spoke I disliked him more. He wasn't interesting to listen to, the only things I remember from him are his mistakes, and most of what he said can be summarized by, remember Obama???, and, Trump bad!!!
My theory about why he's doing so well in the polls is that most Americans don't watch the debates. They're long and tedious and the democrats have no equivalent to Trump to make it interesting. The people who like him haven't seen him bumble his way through almost every question he's asked or any of his recent embarrassing moments, they just remember/like him from the Obama era.
So when Biden ends up on stage against Trump, that will be the first time they really see him. And for all his faults, the one thing Trump is truly great at is decimating his opponents. Biden's record will be easy for Trump to attack, and his slow, rambling talking style will make it easy for Trump to once again take the spotlight. Progressives and millennials won't be energized by Biden, and when swing voters see them sparring on stage, Trump will be the name they remember.
I think that while Biden may not be the most inspiring or energizing candidate for the Democratic party, it is important to remember the general distrust of Trump going around as a result of the impeachment inquiry, with nearly 48% of Americans supporting the impeachment of Trump. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-the-public-stands-on-impeachment-one-month-in/) Furthermore, he has a disapproval rating of nearly 54% of Americans, suggesting that the majority of the American population is eager to get Trump out of office, even if that may be Biden.
ReplyDeleteIn response to your statement, while there consists over half the US who want trump to be removed from office, there also exists half who don't want him out of office. Kiran was simply trying to say that Joe Biden wouldn't be the best democratic candidate to beat Trump due to the fact that he isn't stellar at debating. While you argue that Trump will be easy to win against and push out of office, you have to remember that he was put into office for a reason, and without a proper democratic candidate, there is a good chance he will remain in office.
DeleteYeah even if half of Americans want him impeached, that doesn't necessarily mean they'll vote blue no matter who. The vast majority of Americans don't care about policy, they care how candidates present themselves (The, I could have a beer with him mindset). If Trump comes off as smarter, more likable, or even just more fun than Biden, undecided or apolitical people may either not vote for Biden or vote for Trump. Candidates like Bernie, Warren and honestly Yang have bases that truly believe they are the best face for the free world, and are willing to campaign and organize for their vision. Biden does not inspire that kind of devotion and I personally don't believe he will appeal to important swing voters (thousands who voted for Obama voted for Trump).
DeleteOne other thing you need to consider for this statistics is that while "48% of Americans supporting the impeachment of Trump" and "54% of Americans" may disapprove of him, this doesn't necessarily mean that they approve of Biden. Like the other comments are saying, we don't know if Biden is the right candidate to oppose Trump. That 54% can be split up evenly into all other democratic nominees. Even if there are only two options (which there aren't), the split would be around 27% for both. Each individually is smaller than the 46% that do support Trump. Then let's say one of these options drops out, the democratic voters may hate the other nominee much more than they hate Trump. Therefore we don't really know how the votes split. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-the-public-stands-on-impeachment-one-month-in/)
DeleteYou're totally right. In the Summer of 2019, Biden has no shot against Trump. Biden's a has-been, he's bumbling, and he has barely any unique policies to spring board off of. But wait! Fall hits, and a whistleblower leaks a conversation President Trump had over the phone with Ukraine. He allegedly asks President Zelensky of Ukraine to find dirt on what he thinks is his biggest opponent, Joe Biden. This scandal is potentially what Trump is impeached on, as Speaker Pelosi has announced impeachment procedures are starting, and Biden is at the center of it. This is undeniably what the debates will be about if Biden gets the nomination, and I think it gives him a fighting chance.
ReplyDeleteThat's a good point! I think he has the Resistance and not my president crowd in the palm of his hand, especially after Ukraine. That said, I personally don't think that fighting chance will become a win because progressives believe Hunter's place on the board was corrupt, even if what Trump did was also corrupt. Bernie supporters (and now Yang and some Warren supporters) likely won't see Biden as the less of two evils, and may abstain from voting or vote for Trump like they did in 2016. Every issue they had with Hillary is carried on by Biden, and honestly even though I agree Ukraine could work in his favor, I don't think Biden has the verbal capabilities to truly spin the story in his favor.
DeleteI agree with most of your points, however, Trump's approval rating is extremely low at 41.1% and at one point was at 39%. Many Americans have seen what Trump is like when he is in office and don't seem to like it. There is still an element of the unknown when it comes to Biden, even if he is not the best candidate people still have hope that he may be better than Trump.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Biden would be a worse president than Trump, but I also don't think he can beat him. While Trump may not be popular, the people who like him adore him and will stand by him no matter what. Democrats already started backing away from Biden during the hair smelling thing, and if Biden tries to call out Trump for being sexist it will come off as hypocritical. Obama had even more deportations than Trump (which will be pushed on Biden), and he represents the same establishment Hillary did (Meaning Bernie, Yang, and some Warren supporters will either turn to Trump or stay out of the fray like they did in 2016).
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