Sunday, November 24, 2019

Is the 2020 Dem. Primary a Contest of Issues or Electability?

The 2020 primary elections are approaching, and there has been a slew of candidates marking up a broad range of the political spectrum on the left. According to the Gallup polls, when asked whether they would prefer a candidate who agrees with them on almost all of the issues they care about but not the best chance of beating Donald Trump or candidate who had the best chance of beating Trump but not total agreement on almost all of the issues, 60% preferred a candidate who had the best chance of beating Trump, versus 36% who wanted a candidate who agreed with them on the issues. Around two-thirds of the liberal camp and 57 percent of the moderates of the party agreed that the party should nominate a candidate who has the best chance of beating the incumbent. Of all the Democratic contenders for the nomination, Joe Biden is the most promising at 51 percent, followed by Bernie Sanders at 16 percent and Elizabeth Warren at 15 percent.

Line graph, 2007 to 2019. Democrats’ preference for the ideology of the Democratic presidential nominee in three elections.Another interesting thing to note is that eighty percent of moderate candidates want a moderate candidate while just 59 percent of liberal candidates want a liberal candidate, with 32 percent of the liberals wanting a liberal. Overall, 50 percent of Democrats want to see Moderate candidates, with 33 percent who want to see a liberal candidate and 17 percent who want to see a conservative. Unlike in 2015, when Bernie Sanders seemed to be a "viable alternative to" Hillary Clinton, the party has been more on the same page in seeing the Democratic nominee be moderate. 

All in all, it seems that Democrats desire a candidate who offers the party a better shot of winning the election over their political preferences, even as the party has moved even further to the left. Therefore, as liberal as I am, I feel that it is best that the Democratic party choose a candidate who is best able to win the General Election and who strikes the perfect balance between electability and issues. It's not enough to put up for a candidate who appeals to the liberals if we want to defeat Trump, as moderates are a key group to win over and tip the scale (58 of all moderates disapproved Donald Trumps in an NPR/Marist Poll in October). If you are a Democrat, would you agree? Is this year's primary about the issues or electability?

Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/22/us/politics/moderate-democrats-2020-election.html
https://news.gallup.com/poll/268448/democrats-thinking-strategically-2020-nominee-choice.aspx

1 comment:

  1. I think this is a really good take on what is going on right now. Since the democrats want to avoid letting Trump have another term in the presidency, the best strategy to regain control of the white house would be to not nominate someone who will support all the liberal ideas, but someone who can gain all the liberal vote, and swing some of the swing states. I think that this is a fact that everyone is aware of this election, but nobody has really talked about it yet.

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