I would argue that it is due to the increase in minority and immigrant populations in the state.
As you can see, the state's ethnic breakdown was a majority white throughout the 1970-1990. But over time, the state consistently increased its minority population, specifically Latino population, and likewise increased their say over California's electoral votes. So when the Republican party took a hard stance against immigrants in the 1990's, a large part of the Californian population was turned off. This was only increased in 1994, with the Republican party closely being tied to Proposition 187, which would have denied public services to those in the country illegally. Ever since then, the Republican party has struggled to win back the state. Thus, the election of 1992 was the first election where California went Democratic in almost 40 years and California has stayed democratic ever since. Furthermore, it is unlikely that a Republican will be able to ever win the state back due to the majority of the current Californian population becoming minorities, coupled with the Republican Party's hard stance on immigration/illegal immigrants.
Cool post! I think a lot of people may have assumed that because California is pretty diverse, this might be why, but its really nice to see the numbers and actual data. Do you think that as the population continues changing, that this increase in minorities will only continue to be a main part of California politics? What do you think would have to happen to cause California to ever make a dramatic enough shift for it to change from blue to red?
ReplyDeleteThis is a really interesting post, and it really shows us how the changing California demographics evolved the state's general political position. Do you think similar trend are happening in other states, blue and red? I feel like the same dynamic is happening or has happened in Virginia. Just recently, for the first time, it House of Delegates flipped Blue in the 2019 election, making all chambers and office majorities in the state Blue (Democratic Virginian Majority in the House of Representatives, Democratic Governor, Two Democratic Senators, and a Majority in the Senate and House of Delegates), "emblematic of the demographic shifts in the state that have remade Virginia, once the seat of the Confederacy." Do you Virginia is emerging as another California, gradually becoming more and more liberal?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/05/us/elections/results-virginia-general-elections.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/05/us/politics/virginia-elections.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Representatives_from_Virginia